Prairie discontent with Ottawa declines, but Western separatist sentiment lingers

Rural Canada is showing signs of easing frustration with Ottawa, but Western alienation is far from disappearing, according to a new survey.

A new Confederation of Tomorrow survey of more than 5,300 Canadians finds that dissatisfaction with federalism in the Prairie provinces has dropped to its lowest point since 2019. The survey, conducted by the Environics Institute between May and June, shows that “the proportion of Prairie residents saying their province is not respected has fallen to its lowest level since the Confederation of Tomorrow series of annual surveys began in 2019.”

Between 2024 and 2025, the number of Prairie residents who said their province is treated with respect rose from 32 to 39 per cent. Those saying they are not respected fell from 57 to 49 per cent.

The report also highlights a decline in feelings of unfairness. Just over half (55 per cent) of Prairie residents say their province has less than its fair share of influence on national decisions, down six points from last year. Meanwhile, the share who believe their province gets less than its fair share of federal spending fell from 60 to 53 per cent, “lower than at any point since this current series of annual surveys began in 2019.”

Still, discontent remains. “Two in five Westerners continue to agree that the West might be better off on its own,” the survey notes. Younger Westerners in particular are less committed to Confederation: only 56 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 want the four western provinces to remain in Canada, compared to 77 per cent of those 55 and older.

Despite these tensions, most Canadians—including most Albertans—still expect the province to stay in Confederation. “Three in four Albertans, and about seven in ten of those in the rest of the country, say they think Alberta will probably stay in Canada,” the survey concludes.