Increasing Canada's ability to competitively produce sophisticated, knowledge-intensive products could generate between $53 billion and $98 billion in additional GDP by 2035, equivalent to approximately $2,500 per person, says a new EDC report. / UNSPLASH PHOTO
Canada could add as much as $98 billion to its economy by 2035 by producing and exporting more sophisticated goods, according to a new report from Export Development Canada (EDC).
The report, From Resources to Resilience: How Canada Can Capture More Value Through Trade, argues that Canada must move beyond exporting raw commodities and focus on processing, advanced manufacturing, innovation and knowledge-intensive services to improve productivity and competitiveness.
“Capturing more value from trade is one of Canada's greatest economic opportunities, not only in terms of adding billions to our GDP, but also in terms of increased capabilities and higher productivity,” EDC President and CEO Alison Nankivell said in a press release.
EDC estimates that increasing Canada's economic complexity—its ability to competitively produce sophisticated, knowledge-intensive products—could generate between $53 billion and $98 billion in additional GDP by 2035, equivalent to approximately $2,500 per person under its higher-growth scenario.
The report highlights Canada's declining economic complexity, with its global ranking falling from 17th in 1995 to 35th in 2024, while countries including China and South Korea significantly improved their positions.
EDC attributes Canada's decline partly to its reliance on commodity exports, difficulties scaling globally competitive companies, limited domestic industrial capacity and strong economic integration with the United States.
The report identifies opportunities in agri-food, critical minerals, aerospace, defence, clean technology and advanced manufacturing, where Canadian businesses could capture greater economic returns through refining, processing and developing higher-value products.
It also identifies six priorities for strengthening Canada's trade competitiveness: integrating goods, services and investment; improving access to long-term growth capital; commercializing intellectual property; developing skilled workers and management capabilities; modernizing trade infrastructure; and pursuing targeted export diversification.
“As we move to double our non-U.S. exports and diversify our trading relationships, we're focused not only on where we sell, but what we sell,” International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said in a press release.
